National League · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 12:30. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The National League average is 57%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Worthing at 38%, the draw at 24% and Wealdstone at 39%, from expected goals of 1.54 and 1.56.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 60% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 40% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 57% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Worthing 1.85, draw 3.60, Wealdstone 3.60.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Worthing have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Wealdstone 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 65% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.54 for Worthing and 1.56 for Wealdstone. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worthing | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| Wealdstone | 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: Wealdstone season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.