Liga I · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 16:30. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga I average is 46%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Uta Arad at 53%, the draw at 28% and Corvinul Hunedoara at 19%, from expected goals of 1.36 and 0.7.
The league sets the starting point. Liga I has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Uta Arad have 2 in 4 this season (1 of 2 at home), Corvinul Hunedoara 2 in 5 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 43%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 46% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.36 for Uta Arad and 0.7 for Corvinul Hunedoara. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uta Arad | 4 | 50% | 50% | 25% |
| Corvinul Hunedoara | 5 | 40% | 0% | 20% |
More: Uta Arad season stats · Corvinul Hunedoara season stats · Liga I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.