Primera Nacional · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 33% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Nacional average is 29%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 88% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 60% | No |
The result model puts Tristan Suarez at 57%, the draw at 27% and Agropecuario at 16%, from expected goals of 1.41 and 0.61.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tristan Suarez have 7 in 24 this season (5 of 12 at home), Agropecuario 8 in 25 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 31% and 31%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 31%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 33%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 1.41 for Tristan Suarez and 0.61 for Agropecuario. Folding in 30% of that view gives 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Suarez | 24 | 29% | 17% | 33% |
| Agropecuario | 25 | 32% | 8% | 40% |
More: Tristan Suarez season stats · Agropecuario season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.