Liga MX · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 02:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Liga MX average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Tigres UANL at 42%, the draw at 23% and Atlante FC at 35%, from expected goals of 1.7 and 1.53.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 55% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 45% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 52% | 58% | +6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Tigres UANL 1.36, draw 4.75, Atlante FC 8.00.
The league sets the starting point. Liga MX has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tigres UANL have 4 in 4 this season (1 of 1 at home), Atlante FC 2 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 53% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.7 for Tigres UANL and 1.53 for Atlante FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 4 | 100% | 75% | 100% |
| Atlante FC | 4 | 50% | 25% | 75% |
More: Tigres UANL season stats · Atlante FC season stats · Liga MX table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.