Bundesliga · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Bundesliga average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Sturm Graz at 50%, the draw at 26% and Austria Lustenau at 25%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 1.01.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 48% | -15% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 52% | +15% |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | 48% | 53% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Sturm Graz 1.25, draw 5.50, Austria Lustenau 10.00.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sturm Graz have 0 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Austria Lustenau 2 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 42% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.55 for Sturm Graz and 1.01 for Austria Lustenau. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 3 | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| Austria Lustenau | 3 | 67% | 0% | 100% |
More: Sturm Graz season stats · Austria Lustenau season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.