Primera Clausura · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Clausura average is 42%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Sportivo Ameliano at 49%, the draw at 25% and Deportivo Recoleta at 27%, from expected goals of 1.62 and 1.14.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Clausura has produced over 2.5 goals in 42% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sportivo Ameliano have 9 in 27 this season (5 of 14 at home), Deportivo Recoleta 18 in 27 (9 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.62 for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.14 for Deportivo Recoleta. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Ameliano | 27 | 33% | 11% | 63% |
| Deportivo Recoleta | 27 | 67% | 37% | 74% |
More: Sportivo Ameliano season stats · Deportivo Recoleta season stats · Primera Clausura table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.