Primera Division · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Division average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Sport Huancayo at 59%, the draw at 26% and UCV Moquegua at 15%, from expected goals of 1.51 and 0.63.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sport Huancayo have 15 in 22 this season (5 of 10 at home), UCV Moquegua 12 in 22 (5 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.51 for Sport Huancayo and 0.63 for UCV Moquegua. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Huancayo | 22 | 68% | 27% | 73% |
| UCV Moquegua | 22 | 55% | 18% | 45% |
More: Sport Huancayo season stats · UCV Moquegua season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.