Premijer Liga · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 34% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premijer Liga average is 38%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 66% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 62% | No |
The result model puts Siroki Brijeg at 41%, the draw at 33% and Radnik Bijeljina at 26%, from expected goals of 1.03 and 0.76.
The league sets the starting point. Premijer Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 38% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Siroki Brijeg have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Radnik Bijeljina 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 38%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 41% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 29%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 27%, from expected goals of 1.03 for Siroki Brijeg and 0.76 for Radnik Bijeljina. Folding in 30% of that view gives 34%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siroki Brijeg | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| Radnik Bijeljina | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Siroki Brijeg season stats · Radnik Bijeljina season stats · Premijer Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.