Erovnuli Liga · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 46% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Erovnuli Liga average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Rustavi at 50%, the draw at 27% and Gagra at 23%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 0.84.
The league sets the starting point. Erovnuli Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rustavi have 10 in 21 this season (5 of 10 at home), Gagra 9 in 20 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Rustavi and 0.84 for Gagra. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Rustavi season stats · Gagra season stats · Erovnuli Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.