Championship · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Championship average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Raith Rovers at 42%, the draw at 29% and Ayr Utd at 29%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 0.96.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 42% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 58% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 48% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Raith Rovers 1.85, draw 3.30, Ayr Utd 3.70.
The league sets the starting point. Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Raith Rovers have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Ayr Utd 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 40%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 42% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 58%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Raith Rovers and 0.96 for Ayr Utd. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raith Rovers | 2 | 50% | 0% | 100% |
| Ayr Utd | 2 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
More: Raith Rovers season stats · Ayr Utd season stats · Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.