Championship · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 38% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Championship average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Queen's Park at 39%, the draw at 29% and Stenhousemuir at 32%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 1.05.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 38% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 62% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 49% | +0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Queen's Park 2.10, draw 3.25, Stenhousemuir 3.00.
The league sets the starting point. Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Queen's Park have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Stenhousemuir 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 40%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 40% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.2 for Queen's Park and 1.05 for Stenhousemuir. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queen's Park | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| Stenhousemuir | 2 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
More: Queen's Park season stats · Stenhousemuir season stats · Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.