Partizani v Teuta Durrës — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Superliga · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 33% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Superliga average is 40%.

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Our ratings for this match

Market	Yes	No	Our call
Over 2.5 goals	33%	67%	Under
Over 3.5 goals	16%	84%	no pick
Both teams to score	47%	53%	No

The result model puts Partizani at 34%, the draw at 33% and Teuta Durrës at 33%, from expected goals of 0.9 and 0.87.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Superliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Partizani have 17 in 36 this season (7 of 18 at home), Teuta Durrës 10 in 37 (4 of 18 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 31%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.

Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 36%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 26%, from expected goals of 0.9 for Partizani and 0.87 for Teuta Durrës. Folding in 30% of that view gives 33%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Team	Games	O2.5	O3.5	BTTS
Partizani	36	47%	22%	47%
Teuta Durrës	37	27%	16%	46%

Head to head

21 Mar 26Teuta Durrës 2–2 PartizaniO2.5

19 Jan 26Partizani 2–1 Teuta DurrësO2.5

9 Nov 25Teuta Durrës 2–3 PartizaniO2.5

30 Aug 25Partizani 0–0 Teuta DurrësU2.5

16 Mar 25Partizani 0–0 Teuta DurrësU2.5

19 Jan 25Teuta Durrës 0–2 PartizaniU2.5

Things worth knowing

Partizani return after a break of about 15 weeks — our research found form streaks reset over long lay-offs.
Teuta Durrës return after a break of about 14 weeks.

More: Partizani season stats · Teuta Durrës season stats · Superliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.