Nara Club v Renofa Yamaguchi — prediction, stats and goal analysis

J3 League · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 10:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The J3 League average is 47%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Nara Club at 42%, the draw at 26% and Renofa Yamaguchi at 32%, from expected goals of 1.45 and 1.23.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. J3 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Nara Club have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Renofa Yamaguchi 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 43%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 48% and 42%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.45 for Nara Club and 1.23 for Renofa Yamaguchi. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Nara Club season stats · Renofa Yamaguchi season stats · J3 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.