J2 League · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 11:00. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The J2 League average is 45%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Montedio Yamagata at 46%, the draw at 29% and Yokohama FC at 26%, from expected goals of 1.29 and 0.88.
The league sets the starting point. J2 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Montedio Yamagata have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Yokohama FC 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 41% and 44%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 64% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.29 for Montedio Yamagata and 0.88 for Yokohama FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montedio Yamagata | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Yokohama FC | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Montedio Yamagata season stats · J2 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.