J3 League · Saturday, 22 August 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 1–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 49% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Matsumoto Yamaga at 31%, the draw at 26% and Ehime FC at 43%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 1.48.
The league sets the starting point. J3 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Matsumoto Yamaga have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Ehime FC 2 in 2. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 44% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.23 for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.48 for Ehime FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matsumoto Yamaga | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Ehime FC | 2 | 100% | 100% | 50% |
More: Matsumoto Yamaga season stats · Ehime FC season stats · J3 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.