Ligat Ha'al · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligat Ha'al average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Maccabi Petah Tikva at 45%, the draw at 23% and Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 32%, from expected goals of 1.77 and 1.47.
The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Maccabi Petah Tikva have 0 in 0 this season, Ironi Kiryat Shmona 21 in 33 (10 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 33 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 48% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.77 for Maccabi Petah Tikva and 1.47 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Petah Tikva | 0 | — | — | — |
| Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 33 | 64% | 45% | 70% |
More: Ironi Kiryat Shmona season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.