Ligat Ha'al · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligat Ha'al average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Maccabi Haifa at 43%, the draw at 23% and Hapoel Ramat Gan at 34%, from expected goals of 1.68 and 1.48.
The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Maccabi Haifa have 22 in 36 this season (13 of 18 at home), Hapoel Ramat Gan 21 in 39 (11 of 19 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.68 for Maccabi Haifa and 1.48 for Hapoel Ramat Gan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Haifa | 36 | 61% | 44% | 53% |
| Hapoel Ramat Gan | 39 | 54% | 33% | 62% |
More: Maccabi Haifa season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.