League One · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The League One average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Leicester at 44%, the draw at 25% and Burton Albion at 31%, from expected goals of 1.53 and 1.26.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 52% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 48% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53% | 56% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Leicester 1.44, draw 4.40, Burton Albion 5.75.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Leicester have 0 in 1 this season, Burton Albion 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 54% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.53 for Leicester and 1.26 for Burton Albion. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester | 1 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Burton Albion | 1 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
More: Leicester season stats · Burton Albion season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.