Superliga · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 39% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Superliga average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Laci at 38%, the draw at 26% and AF Elbasani at 36%, from expected goals of 1.33 and 1.29.
The league sets the starting point. Superliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Laci have 0 in 0 this season, AF Elbasani 20 in 39 (11 of 19 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 39 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 33% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 39%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.33 for Laci and 1.29 for AF Elbasani. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laci | 0 | — | — | — |
| AF Elbasani | 39 | 51% | 23% | 56% |
More: AF Elbasani season stats · Superliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.