Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Damallsvenskan (W) average is 66%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Kristianstad W at 50%, the draw at 24% and Rosengård W at 26%, from expected goals of 1.71 and 1.16.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kristianstad W have 10 in 14 this season (5 of 7 at home), Rosengård W 7 in 14 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.71 for Kristianstad W and 1.16 for Rosengård W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristianstad W | 14 | 71% | 57% | 50% |
| Rosengård W | 14 | 50% | 21% | 64% |
More: Kristianstad W season stats · Rosengård W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.