Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premier League average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Kairat Almaty at 67%, the draw at 21% and Irtysh at 12%, from expected goals of 1.93 and 0.69.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kairat Almaty have 12 in 21 this season (6 of 10 at home), Irtysh 10 in 21 (6 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.93 for Kairat Almaty and 0.69 for Irtysh. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kairat Almaty | 21 | 57% | 33% | 57% |
| Irtysh | 21 | 48% | 29% | 57% |
More: Kairat Almaty season stats · Irtysh season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.