Brasileirao (W) · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 22:00. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Brasileirao (W) average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | no pick |
The result model puts Juventude W at 26%, the draw at 28% and Bahia W at 46%, from expected goals of 0.89 and 1.3.
The league sets the starting point. Brasileirao (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Juventude W have 5 in 16 this season (1 of 7 at home), Bahia W 10 in 16 (5 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 0.89 for Juventude W and 1.3 for Bahia W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude W | 16 | 31% | 13% | 19% |
| Bahia W | 16 | 63% | 31% | 63% |
More: Juventude W season stats · Bahia W season stats · Brasileirao (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.