Primera Division · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 21:30. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Primera Division average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Juan Pablo II College at 39%, the draw at 26% and ADT at 36%, from expected goals of 1.41 and 1.34.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Juan Pablo II College have 13 in 22 this season (6 of 11 at home), ADT 9 in 22 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.41 for Juan Pablo II College and 1.34 for ADT. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Pablo II College | 22 | 59% | 36% | 64% |
| ADT | 22 | 41% | 27% | 50% |
More: Juan Pablo II College season stats · ADT season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.