K League 1 · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 11:30. Our rating makes this 39% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The K League 1 average is 46%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Jeju United FC at 34%, the draw at 29% and Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 36%, from expected goals of 1.06 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. K League 1 has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Jeju United FC have 9 in 23 this season (5 of 13 at home), Gimcheon Sangmu FC 7 in 23 (3 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 37%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 39%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.06 for Jeju United FC and 1.09 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeju United FC | 23 | 39% | 9% | 57% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 23 | 30% | 13% | 65% |
More: Jeju United FC season stats · Gimcheon Sangmu FC season stats · K League 1 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.