Ligat Ha'al · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligat Ha'al average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Ironi Tiberias at 42%, the draw at 23% and Hapoel Petah Tikva at 35%, from expected goals of 1.67 and 1.5.
The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ironi Tiberias have 15 in 33 this season (8 of 16 at home), Hapoel Petah Tikva 20 in 36 (11 of 18 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.67 for Ironi Tiberias and 1.5 for Hapoel Petah Tikva. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ironi Tiberias | 33 | 45% | 36% | 45% |
| Hapoel Petah Tikva | 36 | 56% | 44% | 56% |
More: Ironi Tiberias season stats · Hapoel Petah Tikva season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.