Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premier League average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Ipswich at 64%, the draw at 22% and Sunderland at 14%, from expected goals of 1.84 and 0.73.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 50% | 51% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 50% | 49% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53% | 55% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Ipswich 2.62, draw 3.20, Sunderland 2.55.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ipswich have 24 in 46 this season (13 of 23 at home), Sunderland 17 in 38 (8 of 19 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.84 for Ipswich and 0.73 for Sunderland. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | 46 | 52% | 26% | 57% |
| Sunderland | 38 | 45% | 18% | 47% |
More: Ipswich season stats · Sunderland season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.