Primera · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 22:30. Our rating makes this 69% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Primera average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Huachipato at 42%, the draw at 20% and Deportes Limache at 38%, from expected goals of 2.19 and 2.08.
The league sets the starting point. Primera has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Huachipato have 12 in 18 this season (9 of 9 at home), Deportes Limache 14 in 18 (7 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 80%, from expected goals of 2.19 for Huachipato and 2.08 for Deportes Limache. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huachipato | 18 | 67% | 39% | 50% |
| Deportes Limache | 18 | 78% | 61% | 67% |
More: Huachipato season stats · Deportes Limache season stats · Primera table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.