Brasileirao (W) · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 22:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Brasileirao (W) average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Gremio W at 66%, the draw at 22% and Botafogo W at 12%, from expected goals of 1.83 and 0.63.
The league sets the starting point. Brasileirao (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gremio W have 8 in 16 this season (3 of 7 at home), Botafogo W 11 in 16 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.83 for Gremio W and 0.63 for Botafogo W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio W | 16 | 50% | 13% | 38% |
| Botafogo W | 16 | 69% | 19% | 56% |
More: Gremio W season stats · Botafogo W season stats · Brasileirao (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.