Eredivisie · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 15:30. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Eredivisie average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Fortuna Sittard at 38%, the draw at 22% and AZ Alkmaar at 40%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 1.79.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 65% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 35% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 63% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Fortuna Sittard 4.10, draw 3.90, AZ Alkmaar 1.75.
The league sets the starting point. Eredivisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fortuna Sittard have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), AZ Alkmaar 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 63%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 67% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 1.75 for Fortuna Sittard and 1.79 for AZ Alkmaar. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Fortuna Sittard season stats · AZ Alkmaar season stats · Eredivisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.