National League · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 12:30. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The National League average is 57%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Forest Green at 38%, the draw at 23% and Boreham Wood at 39%, from expected goals of 1.63 and 1.67.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 59% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 41% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 60% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Forest Green 2.15, draw 3.60, Boreham Wood 2.88.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Forest Green have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Boreham Wood 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 52% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 1.63 for Forest Green and 1.67 for Boreham Wood. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| Boreham Wood | 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: Forest Green season stats · Boreham Wood season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.