Challenge League · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Challenge League average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts FC WIL 1900 at 46%, the draw at 22% and SC Kriens at 32%, from expected goals of 1.86 and 1.53.
The league sets the starting point. Challenge League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC WIL 1900 have 3 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), SC Kriens 1 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 1.86 for FC WIL 1900 and 1.53 for SC Kriens. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC WIL 1900 | 3 | 100% | 67% | 67% |
| SC Kriens | 3 | 33% | 33% | 33% |
More: FC WIL 1900 season stats · SC Kriens season stats · Challenge League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.