Liga Profesional · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 23% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Profesional average is 33%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% | 77% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8% | 92% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 63% | No |
The result model puts Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 25%, the draw at 41% and San Lorenzo at 34%, from expected goals of 0.55 and 0.68.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 30% | 23% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 70% | 77% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | 41% | 37% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2.75, draw 2.75, San Lorenzo 2.88.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto have 6 in 20 this season (2 of 10 at home), San Lorenzo 3 in 22 (0 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 30% and 21%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 27%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 13%, from expected goals of 0.55 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 0.68 for San Lorenzo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 23%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 20 | 30% | 5% | 20% |
| San Lorenzo | 22 | 14% | 9% | 32% |
More: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto season stats · San Lorenzo season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.