Serie B · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Empoli at 57%, the draw at 25% and Cremonese at 18%, from expected goals of 1.62 and 0.79.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Empoli have 18 in 38 this season (7 of 19 at home), Cremonese 17 in 38 (8 of 19 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.62 for Empoli and 0.79 for Cremonese. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Empoli season stats · Cremonese season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.