National League · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 12:30. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The National League average is 57%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Eastleigh at 44%, the draw at 25% and Scunthorpe at 31%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 1.22.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 52% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 48% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 60% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Eastleigh 2.88, draw 3.40, Scunthorpe 2.20.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Eastleigh have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Scunthorpe 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 57% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.52 for Eastleigh and 1.22 for Scunthorpe. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastleigh | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| Scunthorpe | 2 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
More: Eastleigh season stats · Scunthorpe season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.