Erovnuli Liga · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Erovnuli Liga average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Dila at 38%, the draw at 29% and Torpedo Kutaisi at 33%, from expected goals of 1.16 and 1.08.
The league sets the starting point. Erovnuli Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dila have 8 in 20 this season (5 of 11 at home), Torpedo Kutaisi 11 in 21 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 27%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.16 for Dila and 1.08 for Torpedo Kutaisi. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dila | 20 | 40% | 20% | 40% |
| Torpedo Kutaisi | 21 | 52% | 24% | 57% |
More: Dila season stats · Torpedo Kutaisi season stats · Erovnuli Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.