League One · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The League One average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Cove Rangers at 41%, the draw at 29% and Peterhead at 30%, from expected goals of 1.18 and 0.96.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 50% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 50% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 51% | 55% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Cove Rangers 2.25, draw 3.30, Peterhead 2.62.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cove Rangers have 1 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Peterhead 1 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 41% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.18 for Cove Rangers and 0.96 for Peterhead. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cove Rangers | 3 | 33% | 0% | 0% |
| Peterhead | 3 | 33% | 0% | 33% |
More: Cove Rangers season stats · Peterhead season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.