Canadian Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 21:30. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Canadian Premier League average is 59%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Cavalry FC at 66%, the draw at 19% and Atlético Ottawa at 15%, from expected goals of 2.25 and 0.98.
The league sets the starting point. Canadian Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cavalry FC have 8 in 17 this season (5 of 8 at home), Atlético Ottawa 12 in 17 (7 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.25 for Cavalry FC and 0.98 for Atlético Ottawa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavalry FC | 17 | 47% | 18% | 47% |
| Atlético Ottawa | 17 | 71% | 41% | 76% |
More: Cavalry FC season stats · Atlético Ottawa season stats · Canadian Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.