Serie B · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Benevento at 37%, the draw at 29% and Modena at 34%, from expected goals of 1.14 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Benevento have 0 in 0 this season, Modena 19 in 39 (6 of 19 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.14 for Benevento and 1.09 for Modena. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento | 0 | — | — | — |
| Modena | 39 | 49% | 10% | 49% |
More: Modena season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.