La Liga · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The La Liga average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Athletic Club at 52%, the draw at 24% and Sevilla at 24%, from expected goals of 1.68 and 1.08.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 48% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 57% | 52% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 2.05 | 45% | 53% | +8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Athletic Club 1.67, draw 3.40, Sevilla 5.25.
The league sets the starting point. La Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Athletic Club have 0 in 0 this season, Sevilla 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 47% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.68 for Athletic Club and 1.08 for Sevilla. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 0 | — | — | — |
| Sevilla | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: Athletic Club season stats · Sevilla season stats · La Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.