Wacker Innsbruck v SKN ST. Polten — prediction, stats and goal analysis

2. Liga · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Liga average is 51%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Wacker Innsbruck at 55%, the draw at 23% and SKN ST. Polten at 22%, from expected goals of 1.81 and 1.07.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Wacker Innsbruck have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), SKN ST. Polten 0 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 45%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 54% and 56%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.81 for Wacker Innsbruck and 1.07 for SKN ST. Polten. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: SKN ST. Polten season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.