Superliga · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 37% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Superliga average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts Vllaznia Shkodër at 50%, the draw at 28% and Skenderbeu Korce at 22%, from expected goals of 1.38 and 0.82.
The league sets the starting point. Superliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vllaznia Shkodër have 11 in 39 this season (7 of 21 at home), Skenderbeu Korce 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 33% and 40%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 39 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 33% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 56%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.38 for Vllaznia Shkodër and 0.82 for Skenderbeu Korce. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vllaznia Shkodër | 39 | 28% | 18% | 38% |
| Skenderbeu Korce | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Vllaznia Shkodër season stats · Superliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.