Frauen-Bundesliga (W) · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 17:20. Our rating makes this 72% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Frauen-Bundesliga (W) average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 28% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Union Berlin W at 8%, the draw at 12% and Bayern Munich W at 80%, from expected goals of 0.89 and 3.03.
The league sets the starting point. Frauen-Bundesliga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Union Berlin W have 20 in 26 this season (9 of 13 at home), Bayern Munich W 19 in 26 (11 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 70%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 75%, from expected goals of 0.89 for Union Berlin W and 3.03 for Bayern Munich W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 72%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin W | 26 | 77% | 42% | 69% |
| Bayern Munich W | 26 | 73% | 58% | 31% |
More: Union Berlin W season stats · Bayern Munich W season stats · Frauen-Bundesliga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.