Primera Nacional · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 38% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Nacional average is 29%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts San Telmo at 34%, the draw at 27% and Deportivo Moron at 39%, from expected goals of 1.17 and 1.27.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. San Telmo have 8 in 24 this season (4 of 12 at home), Deportivo Moron 11 in 24 (6 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 31% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 34%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 36%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.17 for San Telmo and 1.27 for Deportivo Moron. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Telmo | 24 | 33% | 17% | 33% |
| Deportivo Moron | 24 | 46% | 25% | 46% |
More: San Telmo season stats · Deportivo Moron season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.