Serie B · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 00:30. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Novorizontino at 57%, the draw at 25% and America Mineiro at 17%, from expected goals of 1.58 and 0.73.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Novorizontino have 18 in 34 this season (10 of 17 at home), America Mineiro 14 in 32 (6 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.58 for Novorizontino and 0.73 for America Mineiro. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino | 34 | 53% | 21% | 47% |
| America Mineiro | 32 | 44% | 9% | 53% |
More: Novorizontino season stats · America Mineiro season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.