Erovnuli Liga · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Erovnuli Liga average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Meshakhte at 19%, the draw at 23% and Dinamo Batumi at 57%, from expected goals of 0.92 and 1.76.
The league sets the starting point. Erovnuli Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Meshakhte have 11 in 21 this season (4 of 10 at home), Dinamo Batumi 15 in 21 (7 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 0.92 for Meshakhte and 1.76 for Dinamo Batumi. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meshakhte | 21 | 52% | 29% | 62% |
| Dinamo Batumi | 21 | 71% | 43% | 62% |
More: Meshakhte season stats · Dinamo Batumi season stats · Erovnuli Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.