Primera Division · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 23:00. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Division average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Liverpool Montevideo at 58%, the draw at 24% and Cerro at 18%, from expected goals of 1.7 and 0.84.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 45% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 59% | 55% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 50% | +8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Liverpool Montevideo 1.65, draw 3.40, Cerro 4.75.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Liverpool Montevideo have 10 in 24 this season (5 of 11 at home), Cerro 9 in 24 (8 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.7 for Liverpool Montevideo and 0.84 for Cerro. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo | 24 | 42% | 17% | 42% |
| Cerro | 24 | 38% | 17% | 42% |
More: Liverpool Montevideo season stats · Cerro season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.