Cymru Premier · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Cymru Premier average is 54%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Haverfordwest County AFC at 35%, the draw at 26% and Cambrian & Clydach at 40%, from expected goals of 1.32 and 1.42.
The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Haverfordwest County AFC have 1 in 3 this season (1 of 2 at home), Cambrian & Clydach 1 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 50% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.32 for Haverfordwest County AFC and 1.42 for Cambrian & Clydach. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haverfordwest County AFC | 3 | 33% | 0% | 0% |
| Cambrian & Clydach | 3 | 33% | 0% | 67% |
More: Haverfordwest County AFC season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.