DFB Pokal · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 72% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 63%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 28% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% | 48% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | no pick |
The result model puts Hansa Rostock at 34%, the draw at 19% and VfB Stuttgart at 46%, from expected goals of 2.03 and 2.35.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hansa Rostock have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), VfB Stuttgart 25 in 34 (17 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 75%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 34 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 64% and 75%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 81%, from expected goals of 2.03 for Hansa Rostock and 2.35 for VfB Stuttgart. Folding in 30% of that view gives 72%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hansa Rostock | 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 74% | 53% | 62% |
More: Hansa Rostock season stats · VfB Stuttgart season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.