Ykkosliiga · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 16:30. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ykkosliiga average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Haka at 62%, the draw at 21% and SJK Akatemia at 17%, from expected goals of 2.03 and 0.97.
The league sets the starting point. Ykkosliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Haka have 12 in 19 this season (8 of 10 at home), SJK Akatemia 5 in 19 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 2.03 for Haka and 0.97 for SJK Akatemia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haka | 19 | 63% | 37% | 58% |
| SJK Akatemia | 19 | 26% | 11% | 26% |
More: Haka season stats · SJK Akatemia season stats · Ykkosliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.