Primera Division · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 46% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Division average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | no pick |
The result model puts FC Cajamarca at 51%, the draw at 26% and Atletico Grau at 23%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 0.93.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Cajamarca have 13 in 22 this season (7 of 11 at home), Atletico Grau 6 in 22 (2 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 37%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.52 for FC Cajamarca and 0.93 for Atletico Grau. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cajamarca | 22 | 59% | 41% | 68% |
| Atletico Grau | 22 | 27% | 18% | 27% |
More: FC Cajamarca season stats · Atletico Grau season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.